← earlier
+30 pointsPeaceful Politics
The end of organized combat moved the system decisively away from midnight.
Historical review · Sources available
1865 review
Union Restored
Military victory preserved the Union, while constitutional reconstruction and the status of formerly enslaved people remained unsettled.
Constitutional health40/100
Clock reading9:35 PM
StatusHigh Constitutional Stress
What 9:35 PM means: Organized war ends and peaceful self-correction becomes possible again, though reunion and equal citizenship remain unsettled.
What moved the clock
What changed from the previous review?
Compared with 1861 (Civil War), the weighted score moved 24 points healthier.
← earlier
+30 pointsLimits on Government Power
The Union and national constitutional framework survived secession.
← earlier
+20 pointsIndividual Rights
Slavery was abolished, but freedom and equal protection were not yet secure in practice.
← earlier
+27 pointsTrust in Institutions
Reintegration required rebuilding lawful authority and acceptance across the former Confederacy.
Eight measures
How the score breaks down
The same weights are used for every period. You can question any measure on its own.
0115% of total
Limits on Government Power
The Union and national constitutional framework survived secession.
50/ 100
↑ 30 since the previous reviewAdds 7.5 points to the total · ↑ 30 since the previous review
Why this score?
Why it was scored this way. The Union and national constitutional framework survived secession.
Confidence. Historical facts: High; numerical score: Moderate–high. See the full review and sources below.
0212.5% of total
Checks and Balances
Could Congress, the president, and the courts still check one another?
48/ 100
↑ 23 since the previous reviewAdds 6.0 points to the total · ↑ 23 since the previous review
Why this score?
Why it was scored this way. Could Congress, the president, and the courts still check one another?
Confidence. Historical facts: High; numerical score: Moderate–high. See the full review and sources below.
0315% of total
Elections and Transfers of Power
Could voters change who holds power through fair elections and peaceful transfers?
30/ 100
↑ 20 since the previous reviewAdds 4.5 points to the total · ↑ 20 since the previous review
Why this score?
Why it was scored this way. Could voters change who holds power through fair elections and peaceful transfers?
Confidence. Historical facts: High; numerical score: Moderate–high. See the full review and sources below.
0415% of total
Rule of Law
Did the law apply through stable courts and institutions instead of personal or arbitrary power?
40/ 100
↑ 22 since the previous reviewAdds 6.0 points to the total · ↑ 22 since the previous review
Why this score?
Why it was scored this way. Did the law apply through stable courts and institutions instead of personal or arbitrary power?
Confidence. Historical facts: High; numerical score: Moderate–high. See the full review and sources below.
0515% of total
Individual Rights
Slavery was abolished, but freedom and equal protection were not yet secure in practice.
35/ 100
↑ 20 since the previous reviewAdds 5.25 points to the total · ↑ 20 since the previous review
Why this score?
Why it was scored this way. Slavery was abolished, but freedom and equal protection were not yet secure in practice.
Confidence. Historical facts: High; numerical score: Moderate–high. See the full review and sources below.
0610% of total
Federal and State Balance
Did federal and state governments keep meaningful authority within their roles?
45/ 100
↑ 30 since the previous reviewAdds 4.5 points to the total · ↑ 30 since the previous review
Why this score?
Why it was scored this way. Did federal and state governments keep meaningful authority within their roles?
Confidence. Historical facts: High; numerical score: Moderate–high. See the full review and sources below.
077.5% of total
Trust in Institutions
Reintegration required rebuilding lawful authority and acceptance across the former Confederacy.
42/ 100
↑ 27 since the previous reviewAdds 3.15 points to the total · ↑ 27 since the previous review
Why this score?
Why it was scored this way. Reintegration required rebuilding lawful authority and acceptance across the former Confederacy.
Confidence. Historical facts: High; numerical score: Moderate–high. See the full review and sources below.
0810% of total
Peaceful Politics
The end of organized combat moved the system decisively away from midnight.
35/ 100
↑ 30 since the previous reviewAdds 3.5 points to the total · ↑ 30 since the previous review
Why this score?
Why it was scored this way. The end of organized combat moved the system decisively away from midnight.
Confidence. Historical facts: High; numerical score: Moderate–high. See the full review and sources below.
Different questions
The clock does not predict major change or civil conflict
A different question
Major change to the system
Could the country's basic governing rules change? This is different from armed conflict.
This needs its own scoring guide. The clock score cannot answer it.
A different question
Organized political violence
Could political violence become organized and sustained? The clock is not a prediction of civil war.
This needs its own scoring guide. The clock score cannot answer it.
Why this matters
Why this moment matters
Ending combat restored the possibility—but not the completion—of constitutional self-government.
Similar moments in history
Evidence review
Confederate surrender, abolition, and beginning of reunion · 1865
- Evidence confidence
- High
- Score confidence
- Moderate–high
The end of organized war and constitutional abolition of slavery are clear. The score is tempered by unsettled citizenship, violent resistance, and incomplete restoration.
Findings
- Major Confederate armies surrendered and sustained interstate warfare ended.
- The Thirteenth Amendment abolished slavery, subject to its criminal-punishment exception.
- Reconstruction began without settled protection for equal citizenship or a stable settlement between the former Confederate states and the Union.
Evidence pointing the other way
Peaceful correction again became possible, but neither equal liberty nor legitimate multiracial government was secure.
Check the sources
Sources
These links support the facts used here. Their publishers did not create or approve the score.