→ midnight
-6 pointsElections and Transfers of Power
The attack attempted to obstruct the constitutionally required certification of an election.
Historical review · Sources available
2021 review
January 6 / Transfer of Power
The attack on the Capitol disrupted certification of the presidential election; Congress later completed certification.
Constitutional health47/100
Clock reading9:10 PM
StatusHigh Constitutional Stress
What 9:10 PM means: An attack on certification brings the clock to its latest point since Reconstruction, but Congress reconvenes and succession is completed.
What moved the clock
What changed from the previous review?
Compared with 2020 (2020 Crisis), the weighted score moved 2 points less healthy.
→ midnight
-12 pointsPeaceful Politics
Organized political violence entered the national transfer-of-power process.
→ midnight
-6 pointsTrust in Institutions
Refusal to accept verified results weakened shared commitment to lawful succession.
← earlier
+3 pointsChecks and Balances
Courts rejected unsupported claims and Congress reconvened, demonstrating surviving corrective capacity.
Eight measures
How the score breaks down
The same weights are used for every period. You can question any measure on its own.
0115% of total
Limits on Government Power
Could the Constitution still place real limits on government power?
45/ 100
↓ 3 since the previous reviewAdds 6.75 points to the total · ↓ 3 since the previous review
Why this score?
Why it was scored this way. Could the Constitution still place real limits on government power?
Confidence. Historical facts: High; numerical score: Moderate–high. See the full review and sources below.
0212.5% of total
Checks and Balances
Courts rejected unsupported claims and Congress reconvened, demonstrating surviving corrective capacity.
55/ 100
↑ 3 since the previous reviewAdds 6.88 points to the total · ↑ 3 since the previous review
Why this score?
Why it was scored this way. Courts rejected unsupported claims and Congress reconvened, demonstrating surviving corrective capacity.
Confidence. Historical facts: High; numerical score: Moderate–high. See the full review and sources below.
0315% of total
Elections and Transfers of Power
The attack attempted to obstruct the constitutionally required certification of an election.
52/ 100
↓ 6 since the previous reviewAdds 7.8 points to the total · ↓ 6 since the previous review
Why this score?
Why it was scored this way. The attack attempted to obstruct the constitutionally required certification of an election.
Confidence. Historical facts: High; numerical score: Moderate–high. See the full review and sources below.
0415% of total
Rule of Law
Did the law apply through stable courts and institutions instead of personal or arbitrary power?
50/ 100
↓ 2 since the previous reviewAdds 7.5 points to the total · ↓ 2 since the previous review
Why this score?
Why it was scored this way. Did the law apply through stable courts and institutions instead of personal or arbitrary power?
Confidence. Historical facts: High; numerical score: Moderate–high. See the full review and sources below.
0515% of total
Individual Rights
Were speech, belief, association, equality, and due process protected in real life?
58/ 100
↑ 3 since the previous reviewAdds 8.7 points to the total · ↑ 3 since the previous review
Why this score?
Why it was scored this way. Were speech, belief, association, equality, and due process protected in real life?
Confidence. Historical facts: High; numerical score: Moderate–high. See the full review and sources below.
0610% of total
Federal and State Balance
Did federal and state governments keep meaningful authority within their roles?
58/ 100
↑ 3 since the previous reviewAdds 5.8 points to the total · ↑ 3 since the previous review
Why this score?
Why it was scored this way. Did federal and state governments keep meaningful authority within their roles?
Confidence. Historical facts: High; numerical score: Moderate–high. See the full review and sources below.
077.5% of total
Trust in Institutions
Refusal to accept verified results weakened shared commitment to lawful succession.
22/ 100
↓ 6 since the previous reviewAdds 1.65 points to the total · ↓ 6 since the previous review
Why this score?
Why it was scored this way. Refusal to accept verified results weakened shared commitment to lawful succession.
Confidence. Historical facts: High; numerical score: Moderate–high. See the full review and sources below.
0810% of total
Peaceful Politics
Organized political violence entered the national transfer-of-power process.
20/ 100
↓ 12 since the previous reviewAdds 2.0 points to the total · ↓ 12 since the previous review
Why this score?
Why it was scored this way. Organized political violence entered the national transfer-of-power process.
Confidence. Historical facts: High; numerical score: Moderate–high. See the full review and sources below.
Different questions
The clock does not predict major change or civil conflict
A different question
Major change to the system
Could the country's basic governing rules change? This is different from armed conflict.
This needs its own scoring guide. The clock score cannot answer it.
A different question
Organized political violence
Could political violence become organized and sustained? The clock is not a prediction of civil war.
This needs its own scoring guide. The clock score cannot answer it.
Why this matters
Why this moment matters
The episode directly concerns electoral succession, political violence, law enforcement, and institutional continuity.
Similar moments in history
Evidence review
Attack on certification and completed transfer of power · January 6–20, 2021
- Evidence confidence
- High
- Score confidence
- Moderate–high
Video, court records, congressional proceedings, criminal cases, and official investigations provide unusually dense evidence directly tied to peaceful transfer.
Findings
- A violent attack disrupted the joint session counting electoral votes.
- Congress reconvened and completed certification; the elected president was inaugurated on schedule.
- Courts had rejected unsupported election claims, and subsequent prosecutions applied ordinary criminal process to participants.
Evidence pointing the other way
The transfer came under direct violent attack, yet the constitutional process survived and completed succession.
Check the sources
Sources
These links support the facts used here. Their publishers did not create or approve the score.